College Market Trends and Economic Theory Point to the Enlistment Potential of the Two-year College Market

Military recruiting has become more difficult in recent years. For the first time in two decades the services failed to meet their recruiting targets for fiscal year (FY) 1999. While the unusually strong labor market of the 1990s undoubtedly played some role in recent recruiting difficulties, another long-term demographic trend is likely to also contribute to recruiting woes: the large growth in college attendance in recent years. Traditionally, the services have targeted the recruitment of those youth who have no immediate plans to attend college. However, because high-quality youth are increasingly likely to choose to attend college right after high school, the services may benefit from considering whether they could target this group. The services might be able to significantly expand their pool of potential recruits by adopting policies that target youth who plan to go to college or who actually do go to college immediately following high school. We call this group youth in the college market.